What is the job market forecast for the class of 2025?

The graduating class of 2025 marks a significant milestone, being the largest high school cohort to emerge in the United States to date, as highlighted in a report by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. The prevailing consensus among experts is that students from this cohort will face substantial competition for lucrative employment opportunities, both in the short term and potentially in the years that follow, given the sheer size of their cohort.

Erica Groshen, a senior economic advisor at Cornell Industrial and Labor Relations School, underscores the influence of policy changes, tariffs, and immigration on the job market’s landscape, introducing varying degrees of uncertainty. These policy shifts and geopolitical dynamics are causing companies to adopt a more cautious stance towards hiring practices, leading to increased scrutiny and a degree of risk aversion in the labor market.

Against this backdrop, high school graduates like Ryan Ernenwein are making crucial decisions regarding their career paths, drawing divergent conclusions based on their perceptions of the job market. Ernenwein epitomizes this trend, opting to eschew traditional college education in favor of entering the trade sector, with a keen interest in becoming a certified welder. Reflecting on the arduous journey required to establish oneself in welding, from humble beginnings as a floor sweeper to laboriously navigating weld tests, Ernenwein is optimistic about his prospects in the trade sector, recognizing the declining popularity of vocational training among contemporary graduates.

Conversely, students like Mackenzie Hayes are choosing to pursue higher education, recognizing the potential benefits of furthering their academic credentials before entering the job market. Hayes acknowledges the profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on her educational experience and is eager to embrace a more conventional college setting to augment her learning journey. Despite the uncertainties surrounding the job market’s trajectory in the upcoming years, especially in light of their eventual graduation, students across the board remain committed to navigating the challenges that lie ahead as they strive to gain a competitive edge.

Groshen underscores the advantageous position that individuals with higher educational qualifications enjoy in the job market, attributing lower unemployment rates to this demographic. Comparatively, high school graduates face heightened levels of competition for available job opportunities, given their relatively limited experience and educational attainment levels. While the precise contours of the job market remain uncertain, one prevailing trend is the correlation between education levels and employment prospects, suggesting the significance of continuous learning and skill development in steering individuals towards rewarding career pathways.