Global smartphone shipment forecast for 2025 lowered due to tariff uncertainty

Market intelligence firm, Counterpoint Research, has recently adjusted its global smartphone shipment forecast for the year 2025. The forecast now anticipates a 1.9% year-on-year growth rate, which is a significant decrease from the previous estimate of 4.2%. Analysts attribute this downward revision to uncertainties surrounding US tariffs that may impact manufacturers’ pricing strategies, supply chain operations, and ultimately, consumer demand trends.

Despite this adjustment, Counterpoint Research’s latest Market Outlook Report indicates that most regions are still poised to experience growth, barring North America and China. The report highlights price hikes resulting from cost pass-throughs as a critical issue, although the trade tariff landscape remains both fluid and unpredictable.

Associate Director of Counterpoint Research, Liz Lee, emphasized the potential impact of tariffs on leading players like Apple and Samsung, particularly in the US market. Lee underscored that while tariff considerations influenced the revised forecast, weakening demand not only in North America but also in Europe and parts of Asia factored into the revised projections. Lee remains optimistic about Apple’s performance in 2025, citing the success of the iPhone 16 series in the first quarter of the year. She also noted that premiumization trends in emerging markets such as India, Southeast Asia, and the Gulf countries will likely bolster iPhone shipments in the long term.

Counterpoint Research’s current assessments assume a relatively stable tariff environment throughout 2025. However, analysts caution that escalating rhetoric and trade policy uncertainties could significantly impact pricing decisions by manufacturers, disrupt supply chain planning, and ultimately influence consumer demand dynamics.

Associate Director Ethan Qi shed light on the brighter prospects for Huawei in the current market landscape. Qi noted that easing bottlenecks in sourcing key components, at least for the remainder of the year, may allow Huawei to gain substantial market share in the mid-to-lower-end segments domestically. These developments underscore the dynamic nature of the smartphone industry and the importance of adaptability to changing market conditions.

In conclusion, while the global smartphone shipment forecast for 2025 has been revised downward due to uncertainties surrounding trade tariffs, there are still opportunities for growth in various regions. The industry remains resilient in the face of challenges, with leading players like Apple and Samsung navigating evolving market conditions. It is essential for manufacturers to remain agile and responsive to changes in the tariff landscape and consumer preferences to thrive in the competitive smartphone market.