Global Smartphone Shipment Forecast Lowered for 2025 Due to US Tariff Uncertainty

Counterpoint Research recently adjusted its previous forecast for a 1.9% year-over-year (YoY) growth in global smartphone shipments by 2025, down from the earlier projection of 4.2% YoY. The revision was influenced by uncertainties stemming from US tariffs. Despite this, the research indicates that most regions are poised for growth, with the exceptions being North America and China.

North America is expected to experience a decline due to anticipated price hikes caused by tariffs. In China, the growth forecast has been altered to nearly flat due to a lukewarm response from the market to the government’s subsidy initiative. Projections for smartphone giants Apple and Samsung have also been lowered as they are likely to pass on cost increases to consumers, dampening demand. This adjustment in forecast comes despite some reduction in the tariff burden compared to previous worst-case scenarios.

Conversely, the outlook for Huawei has been upgraded due to improvements in its supply chain efficiency and the continuation of strong sales momentum for its in-house developed chips. The company is expected to benefit from a more seamless supply chain and is projected to see a growth in market share, particularly in the mid-to-lower-end segments.

Counterpoint Research’s Associate Director, Liz Lee, emphasized the impact of tariffs on the market, stating, “All eyes are on Apple and Samsung due to their exposure to the US market. Tariffs, along with weakened demand in regions like North America, Europe, and parts of Asia, have influenced our revised forecasts.” Lee also remains optimistic about Apple’s performance in 2025, highlighted by the success of the iPhone 16 series and positive trends in premium markets like India, Southeast Asia, and the GCC.

Despite the adjustments in the forecast, Counterpoint Research anticipates relatively stable tariff conditions through 2025. However, there is a lingering uncertainty around trade policies that could significantly affect pricing strategies, supply chain operations, and consumer demand.

Associate Director, Ethan Qi, mentioned the positive prospects for Huawei in 2025, attributing the potential growth to better availability of key components for the brand. While it may still be premature to declare 2025 as Huawei’s breakthrough year on a global scale, strengthening the supply chain will undoubtedly bolster the company’s expansion efforts overseas in the medium term.

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a prominent global research firm specializing in the technology, media, and telecom industries. The firm provides a blend of monthly reports, customized projects, and detailed analysis to major technology and financial organizations. With a team of seasoned experts in the tech industry, Counterpoint Research remains at the forefront of monitoring and analyzing trends in the smartphone market.