IDC lowers global smartphone forecast for 2025 to 0.6% amidst uncertainty

unique structure of the US smartphone market, where majority of devices are bought through carriers which help fuel demand by offering robust trade in deals and interest-free financing programs. As a result, the forecasted 4% growth in average selling prices of smartphones will have less immediate impact on consumers, especially with many new premium devices launching in the second half of the year.”

“Since April 2nd, the smartphone industry has faced a whirlwind of uncertainty. While current exemptions on smartphones have offered temporary relief, the looming possibility of broader tariffs presents a serious risk,” added Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “Recent signals from the US administration on potential tariff hikes on smartphones manufactured outside the US further complicate long-term strategic planning for OEMs. Smartphone vendors – particularly those shipping to the US – must now navigate complex geopolitics alongside ongoing supply chain diversification efforts. Despite these headwinds, India and Vietnam are expected to remain the key alternatives to China for smartphone production. However, additional tariffs of 20-30% on US-bound smartphones could pose a serious downside risk to the current U.S. market outlook.”

In conclusion, IDC has revised its global smartphone shipment forecast for 2025 to only a 0.6% increase due to various uncertainties, tariff volatility, and economic challenges. The expected growth has been reduced from the initial forecast of 2.3% in February. The US and China are expected to be driving forces behind this minimal growth, with China forecasted to grow by 3% fueled by government subsidies, while Apple is predicted to experience a decline of 1.9% due to strong competition and economic factors. Despite these challenges, the smartphone market remains resilient, with strategies in place to navigate complexities and ensure growth, particularly considering alternatives such as India and Vietnam for production. The industry is adapting to evolving geopolitical landscapes and trade tensions to maintain forward momentum.