Freighter fleet growth remains strong

Airbus and Boeing, in their most recent market analyses, are anticipating a significant expansion of the global freighter fleet until 2043. This key finding is included in the forecast reports published by the two companies, known as the Global Market Forecast (GMF) by Airbus and the Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) by Boeing.

The US aircraft manufacturer, Boeing, foresees a continuous increase in demand for air freight over the next twenty years, with the primary driver being the ongoing surge in online retail. Factors such as geopolitical risks, sea freight volatility, and the overall rise in demand for rapid and dependable transportation solutions are also contributing to the industry’s growth expectations.

The central focus of the growth strategy lies in converted freighters. Boeing and Airbus predict that two-thirds of the new cargo aircraft entering the market will be converted passenger aircraft. The allure of conversion lies in lower costs, quicker delivery times, and a more prompt response to demand fluctuations. Airbus projects the introduction of 970 new narrow-body freighters, primarily for e-commerce and express delivery on short and medium-haul routes. Additionally, 620 new wide-body freighters are forecasted for the long-haul market.

The long-term escalation in air freight is not only evidenced in fleet forecasts but also in the anticipated growth of the actual freight volume transported. According to projections by Airports Council International (ACI), global air freight tonnage is expected to witness robust growth in the upcoming decades. By 2042, the transported volume is estimated to increase by approximately 60 percent compared to the levels in 2025 (130.3 million tonnes). Ten years later, in 2052, a further 90 percent increase is expected, reaching a total global air freight volume of 241.1 million tonnes.

From a sustainability perspective, this upward trajectory poses challenges. If the air traffic volume escalates at a similar pace to freight transport and predominantly relies on fossil fuels, the industry’s emissions could soar to unsustainable levels. Even in optimistic scenarios involving the adoption of sustainable fuels, the remaining emission allowance may be depleted well before reaching the growth threshold.

At the 41st General Assembly of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in 2022, the industry came to a consensus to establish a CO2 budget to attain the net-zero objective. Ultimately, the aviation sector agreed upon a maximum CO2 emission limit of 18.4 billion tonnes. This set amount signifies the allowable CO2 emissions for the aviation industry as a whole by 2050 to operate in a climate-neutral manner. This figure is not directly tied to a specific temperature tolerance limit.

In conclusion, while the air freight industry is poised for substantial growth in the coming years, the sustainability implications of this expansion must be carefully considered to align with climate goals and emission targets set by international agreements.