Xeneta: Air freight rates increase less, market outlook challenging

talil retaliation tariffs on China. This shift in rates was most prominent on the North America – Northeast Asia trade route, which experienced a 14% increase in spot rates due to the surge in exports to China and Hong Kong.

Across other trade lanes, the Middle East & Central Asia to Europe spot rates remained stable compared to the previous month but saw a decrease from the previous year. This change reflected the easing of supply disruptions from earlier Red Sea issues. Westbound transatlantic rates declined by 7% from March, impacted by increased bellyhold capacity from summer flight schedules and the seasonal Easter holiday slowdowns. Additionally, Northeast Asia to Europe fronthaul rates increased slightly month-on-month while backhaul rates to Northeast Asia decreased due to ongoing trade imbalances.

Looking ahead, the removal of the de minimis exemption for shipments from China and Hong Kong into the US is expected to disrupt major trade lanes, particularly for e-commerce. This change may result in a decline in airfreight volumes from China to the US, affecting the traditional airfreight market. As airlines adjust their networks to accommodate these shifts, shippers worldwide may benefit from increased capacity availability. However, the overall impact on the macroeconomic situation remains uncertain, especially with the ongoing tariffs affecting global trade.

Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s chief airfreight officer, emphasized the potential challenges and opportunities this shift in trade dynamics may bring. Lower airfreight rates could benefit shippers and forwarders, but if tariffs hinder the ability to sell goods, it may have negative implications for the airfreight industry. The uncertainty surrounding trade tensions and tariffs could have lasting effects on major trade routes, creating a challenging outlook for the industry as a whole.

Van de Wouw highlighted the unprecedented scale of the impact on trade lanes, underscoring the need for adaptability and resilience within the air cargo sector. As uncertainties persist, the macroeconomic landscape will likely face significant challenges, affecting various industries beyond airfreight. The current situation presents a complex and daunting outlook as businesses navigate geopolitical uncertainties and shifting trade dynamics on a global scale.