Pentagon’s AI program for critical minerals moved to non-profit organization

The US Department of Defense’s AI metals program, designed to counter China’s critical minerals dominance, has transitioned to the Critical Minerals Forum (CMF), a non-profit. This transition aims to aid miners and manufacturers in supply deal negotiations by predicting metal costs. The program excludes Chinese market manipulation to promote confidence in transactions between buyers and sellers, ultimately guiding long-term investment decisions.

Comprising 30 founding members, including mining companies, manufacturers, and investors, the CMF’s membership boasts names like Volkswagen, South32 (copper miner), MP Materials (rare earths miner), and RTX (defense contractor). Former US diplomat and current CMF president Rob Strayer leads this diverse group of industry participants.

The CMF intends to facilitate Western mines’ supply deals, marking a shift in traditional metal trading practices. By linking mining projects with potential investors and manufacturers, the organization aims to establish a secure metal supply chain. With funding from the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) guaranteed until 2029, the CMF’s reliance on DARPA is evident, especially with expected intellectual property transfer of the AI model in 2027.

As China imposes restrictions on critical minerals exports, there is a growing need for US mining projects and processing facilities. US President Donald Trump’s directive to enhance domestic mineral production aligns with the CMF’s objectives. The organization’s data holds potential benefits for this initiative, despite industry skepticism regarding the AI program’s influence on metal trading.

Industry experts like Ian Lange from the Colorado School of Mines have expressed doubts about the AI model’s efficacy. Lange’s skepticism about the program’s ability to revolutionize metal trading resonates with concerns about the accuracy of machine learning predictions, citing past failures in oil price forecasting.

The US government’s recent approval of ten mining projects across the country aims to enhance critical mineral production, underscoring the nation’s dedication to reducing reliance on foreign sources. Despite prevailing doubts, the CMF’s efforts to streamline supply deals and align domestic mineral production with national interests reflect a growing trend towards reshaping the global metal trade landscape.

In conclusion, the transfer of the Pentagon’s AI metals program to the CMF signifies a pivotal shift towards strengthening US mineral security and reshaping global trade practices. By fostering collaboration between industry stakeholders, the CMF aims to enhance the competitiveness of Western mines while reducing dependency on foreign sources. This strategic move reflects a broader commitment to safeguarding national interests and promoting sustainable resource management.