Key Information for Farmers Ahead of April’s WASDE Report

The upcoming April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is highly anticipated by farmers and market analysts, as it is expected to provide crucial insights into the corn, soybean, and wheat markets. The March report revealed unchanged U.S. corn and soybean ending stocks, whereas wheat stocks saw a slight increase due to weak export demand. As we approach the imminent April report, it is essential for farmers to be aware of the key market trends and factors influencing these commodities.

In the realm of corn, the U.S. carryout for 2024/2025 remained steady at 1.54 billion bushels, with world ending stocks experiencing a slight decrease. Export demand has been robust, surpassing the USDA’s forecasted pace for the current crop year. Despite ethanol production decelerating in recent weeks, it still outperforms the forecast. Grain Market Insider predicts a potential upsurge in export demand and ethanol production for the upcoming report, while feed demand might witness a decline due to fewer livestock in feedlots and a mild winter. Consequently, Grain Market Insider foresees a reduction of U.S. ending stocks by 25-50 million bushels in the forthcoming report.

On the soybean front, 2024/2025 ending stocks were unaltered at 380 million bushels in March. Although the export pace has decelerated, both commitments and inspections remain marginally ahead of expectations to meet the USDA’s annual target. Soybean crush figures align with the current estimate for the crop year. Given the slowdown in exports with only marginal improvements, Grain Market Insider does not anticipate any adjustments to soybean ending stocks in the upcoming report.

The wheat market witnessed a bearish turn in the March report, with U.S. ending stocks escalating due to lackluster export demand. Despite stable export sales post the last report, inspections continue to lag but are expected to pick up as the marketing year progresses. Grain Market Insider envisions no change in carryout for this week’s report.

Drawing insights from historical data spanning 2000-2023, Grain Market Insider’s internal research suggests that corn tends to exhibit low volatility, whereas soybeans and wheat experience moderate fluctuations on the April WASDE report day. In terms of market reaction, corn generates negativity 55% of the time, with modest price shifts. Soybeans witness slightly higher volatility, while wheat falls in the middle ground with an average net change of 6¢.

In conclusion, while market expectations are rife with anticipation, it is imperative for farmers to factor in the potential shifts in supply and demand dynamics across corn, soybean, and wheat markets to navigate the evolving landscape effectively.