Key Triggers for Next Week: RBI MPC, CPI, Tariffs, and Global Economic Data Impact Market Outlook

The expectation for next week’s equity market performance is likely to be influenced by various national and international factors, including the decisions of the RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March, industrial production data, updates on US reciprocal tariffs, and global economic data updates. On April 9, the RBI MPC decision will be announced, offering crucial insights into the Reserve Bank’s policies and India’s economic situation. Subsequently, India will release its CPI data for March, along with Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production data on April 11. On the global front, the minutes of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), US CPI data, and UK GDP updates are scheduled for next week.

The closing of Indian benchmark indices this past week witnessed a significant decline, ending a two-week positive trend provoked by escalating global trade disputes that adversely impacted investor confidence. The Sensex recorded a 2.65% decrease, closing at 75,364.69, and the Nifty experienced a 2.61% fall, wrapping up the week at 22,904.45. Particularly noteworthy was the severe plunge in IT and Metal stocks by 9.15% and 7.46%, respectively, positioning them as the poorest performing sectors. In contrast, FMCG experienced a slight increase of 0.45%, indicating stability within the volatile market thanks to defensive buying.

The primary cause of the market sell-off stemmed from US President Donald Trump’s decision to implement high reciprocal tariffs on major trading partners, imposing a hefty 27% levy on certain Indian products. During this turbulent period, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) aggressively divested about Rs 13,730 crore from the cash segment, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) extended support with net inflows of approximately Rs 5,632 crore. Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group, remarked on the market’s status, stating, “Nifty 50 hit a two-week low due to growing anxieties about a global trade conflict and recession, fostering a negative market sentiment.” He advised caution for traders, highlighting critical support levels at 22,300 and 22,000, with 22,800 acting as a robust resistance level.

In the prevailing environment, IANS recommends that traders maintain a sell-on-rise strategy, exercise caution, and refrain from aggressive long positions until market stability improves.