2025 Trends and Market Outlook for Commercial Vehicle Diagnostics

In a recent whitepaper by Noregon, the commercial vehicle industry was seen grappling with lower contract and spot rates due to a freight recession. Digging into the 2025 market forecast and the significance of commercial vehicle diagnostics, Noregon examined historical data and expert opinions to gain insights into the future outlook. According to their findings, there are signs that the market might be on the brink of a turnaround, with indications pointing towards a slow yet steady recovery in 2025, fostering a sense of cautious optimism among industry observers.

The report, authored by Sandeep Kar, Bill Hathaway, David Fabrizio, and Thomas Hendrix, highlighted a pressing concern surrounding the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO), which witnessed a substantial increase in 2024. The data revealed that the cost per mile for transporting freight using Class 8 trucks surged to $2.27 by 2023 from $1.65 in 2020, marking a significant 38% rise over this period. Factors such as escalating driver wages, maintenance costs, and financing rates were identified as contributors to this inflation, compelling fleet operators to seek out cost-effective solutions to navigate these challenges.

An ongoing issue flagged in the report pertains to the aging fleet population within the industry. Notably, nearly three-quarters of heavy-duty trucks currently in circulation are over eight years old, underscoring the growing demand for products and services geared towards enhancing uptime and operational efficiency. It is predicted that this trend is likely to fuel increased spending in 2025 on vehicle diagnostics and maintenance tools to ensure optimal performance.

Addressing supply and demand dynamics in vehicle maintenance, the report shed light on the shortage of skilled technicians, emphasizing the pivotal role of electronic commercial vehicle diagnostic tools as a critical solution. With the Bureau of Labor and Statistics projecting an annual average of 25,600 job openings for diesel service technicians, the need for sophisticated diagnostic tools becomes even more pronounced. Insights gleaned from Noregon’s Voice of Customer Surveys revealed that independent repair facilities and dealerships viewed hiring skilled technicians as their primary challenge from 2022-2024, while fleet operators prioritized accurate troubleshooting and diagnostics.

The gradual adoption of aftermarket diagnostic solutions is poised to gain traction, particularly as most fleets in North America comprise a mix of vehicles with different system configurations. Instead of relying on multiple OE tools for various makes and models, a cost-effective aftermarket diagnostic tool that covers all vehicles is expected to capture 50% of the market by 2027, offering a more streamlined and efficient diagnostic process.

Looking ahead to 2025, the report highlighted the increasing trend towards the integration of A.I.-driven tools in commercial vehicle diagnostics and predictive maintenance. These technologies are projected to revolutionize maintenance practices by enabling proactive identification of impending issues before they escalate into breakdowns, thereby reducing unplanned downtime and enhancing overall operational efficiency. Additionally, the growing reliance on telematics and remote diagnostics is anticipated to continue, with fleet managers leveraging real-time vehicle health insights to optimize fleet performance and cut costs.