$150 billion potential in upstream sector despite slowdown in shale mergers and acquisitions, according to Rystad Energy.

play a key role in maintaining the market’s health. There is also potential for further upside if U.S. shale gas M&A activity increases, assuming Henry Hub prices remain stable and conducive to dealmaking,” mentioned Atul Raina, Vice President of Oil & Gas Research at Rystad Energy.
Beyond well-known regions, the Middle East is quickly becoming a significant center for M&A activity. With plans for liquefied natural gas (LNG) expansion, the region saw its second-highest year of M&A activity since 2019, with deal value reaching close to $9.65 billion in 2024 after hitting a peak of $13.3 billion in 2022. Leading this surge in activity are Middle Eastern national oil companies with major projects such as QatarEnergy’s North Field expansion and ADNOC’s Ruwais LNG.
QatarEnergy’s North Field expansion aims to boost LNG production to 142 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) by the early 2030s. Additionally, ADNOC is considering awarding a 5% stake in Ruwais LNG to an international partner. Despite these promising developments, ongoing geopolitical tensions in other parts of the region could hinder or delay future deals.
Meanwhile, M&A activities in Europe saw a 10% decrease year-on-year in 2024, with a total deal value of $14 billion. About 75% of this total value was focused in the UK, where major players are pursuing an autonomous model strategy to expand in the North Sea. A significant deal in this region involved Shell and Equinor merging their UK North Sea portfolios, with the combined entity expected to become the largest producer in the UK North Sea, aiming for an output of around 140,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed) by 2025.
Despite existing upstream opportunities worth $8 billion in Europe, the future M&A landscape remains uncertain. This uncertainty stems from fiscal policies in the UK, which account for a majority of potential deals valued at approximately $5.9 billion. The tightened government fiscal terms for offshore oil and gas operations raise concerns about diminishing buyer interest. However, amid these challenges, a trend of combining portfolios to balance deferred tax positions and future expenditures may emerge as a strategy in the UK’s M&A market.